The Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (CBRT) will announce its long-awaited decision on interest rates on Thursday 23 June at 2pm. The expectation for this month’s meeting of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPK) was that the weekly repo rate would be kept constant at 14.00%.
While 17 of the 18 economists participating in the ForeksHaber survey predicted that the interest rate will not change, 1 predicted it will be reduced to 13.00%. All 9 economists who expressed their views at the end of 2022 projected the interest rate to be 14.00%. In last month’s survey, the interest rate expectation for the end of 2022 was found at the level of 14.00 percent, while the forecast was between 14.00 and 25.00 percent.
FIXED INTEREST AT 14 PERCENTAGE
In September, October, November and December 2021, the CBRT decided to cut the benchmark interest rate by 500 basis points to 14%. In January, February, March, April and May, the Bank did not make changes to interest rates in line with expectations.
The CBRT interest rate decision will be announced on Thursday 23 June at 2pm.
PRICES IN DOLLARS AND EUROS
Moving in an uptrend on Friday, the dollar / TL ended the day at 17.3265, 0.13 percent above its previous close. Dollar / TL is trading at 17.31, just below the previous close, following a flat start to the new week. In the same minutes, the euro / TL increased by 0.2 per cent and met the buyer at 18.23 lire.
After reaching its highest level since December 2002 with 105.8 last week, the dollar index, which followed a fluctuating trend, stabilized at 104.4 with a decrease of 0.2 percent compared to the previous one. closing at the beginning of the week. The euro / dollar parity, on the other hand, finds buyers at 1.0520 with an increase of 0.2 per cent.
Analysts said the volatile currency markets continued with recession fears intensifying after the US Federal Reserve (Fed) aggressively raised interest rates. Analysts said rising risk perception kept dollar demand strong and noted that verbal guidance from top central bank officials during the week would be important to markets.
HOW WILL THE DOLLAR MOVE IN THE WEEK OF INTEREST DECISION?
Analysts at ÜNLÜ & Co / MORE used the following statements in their assessment of the dollar exchange rate:
“The CBRT has taken a lot of announced and undisclosed liquidity measures over the past week, it has been seen that a policy change has been made with the tightening on loans. While some adjustments were made to macro discretionary practices at last month’s meeting, very important adjustments were made in the last month. We do not anticipate any changes in the CBRT interest rate decision, but we do anticipate changes in the text regarding the next steps. The slot can be maintained between 5pm and 5.30pm this week. “
DOLLAR FORECAST BY THE CENTRAL BANK
The Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey, on the other hand, shared its year-end and 12-month forecast for the dollar / TL rate in the Market Participants Survey released last week. As a result, the dollar / TL rate forecast for the end of the year, which was 17.57 TL in the previous report, has risen to 18.89. The USD / TL expectation after 12 months increased from 18.47 to 20.70.