The inflation rate for June 2022 has not yet been announced. The exact date on the matter has been announced. Nureddin Nebati, Minister of the Treasury and Finance, gave important messages on the exchange rate and inflation. Nebati said: “There was a 30.95% increase in our employees’ salaries in January 2022. The increase to be made in July will be finalized with the announcement of June inflation rates and we expect an increase of approximately 40%. Against this backdrop, the cumulative increase in the salaries of our civil servants will reach around 83% in 2022. “
WHAT WAS THE MINIMUM WAGE IN 2022?
President Erdoğan announced the increase in the additional rate to the minimum wage. new minimum wage 5 thousand 500 lire it happened.
WHEN WILL THE INFLATION RATE BE ANNOUNCED IN JUNE 2022?
Inflation data for June Monday 4th July 2022 at 10:00It will be announced by TURKSTAT.
ELEMENTS AND RISKS RELATED TO INFLATION
Geopolitical risks, the effects of which continue to increase while turning negative in the first half of the year, have led to a weakening of global economic activity. Global growth forecasts for the next period continue to be updated downwards.
Growing uncertainties about global food security due to trade bans, high commodity prices, persistent supply constraints in some sectors, notably in basic food and energy, and the high level of transport costs lead to an increase in producer and consumer prices on an international scale. The effects of high global inflation on inflation expectations and international financial markets are closely monitored. However, central banks in developed countries point out that rising inflation may take longer than expected due to rising energy prices and supply / demand imbalances. In this context, depending on the economic outlook that differs between countries, the divergence in the phases of monetary policy and in the communications of the central banks of developed countries is increasing. It is noted that efforts have increased to find solutions with new practices and support tools developed by central banks to increase uncertainties in financial markets.
Parallel to the global risk appetite in portfolio flows to developing countries, outflows from both debt securities and equity markets continued in June. However, the volatility of long-term bond yields from developed countries and developments in global financial conditions keep the risks related to portfolio flows to developing countries alive. It is believed that the effects of these risks that will be created through portfolio flows to Turkey could continue to be more limited considering the current positioning levels of the non-resident portfolio.
Rising inflation is driven by rising energy costs caused by geopolitical developments, the temporary effects of price formations far from economic fundamentals, and severe negative supply shocks caused by increases in global energy and product prices. food and agricultural commodities.
As a result of geopolitical developments, high levels of commodity prices, especially energy and agricultural products, continuous disruptions in supply chains and rising internal energy costs continue to affect producer prices. Analyzed by the main industrial groups, annual inflation was more or less stable in intermediate goods, while it increased in the other subgroups, especially in energy. While energy producer prices rose 27.65 percent on a monthly basis, the rise in natural gas prices was particularly noticeable.
Economic activity continued its strong course in the first quarter of 2022. During this period, gross domestic product (GDP) increased by 7.3 percent year on year and by 1.2 percent compared to the previous quarter. in terms of seasonality and calendar. In terms of production, the main drivers of annual growth in the first quarter were services and industry, while the construction sector contained growth. On the expenditure side, the main driver of annual growth was final domestic demand driven by private consumption, while the contribution of net exports to annual growth was 3.5 points. Investments in machinery and equipment, one of the investment sub-items, continued to grow on an annual basis. In fact, starting from the first quarter of the year, the share of investments in machinery and equipment and of net exports in national income reached the highest level in the last ten years.
Capacity utilization levels and other leading indicators point to strong growth at the start of the year continued into the second quarter with the positive effect of foreign demand. In April, industrial production remained stable compared to the previous month, net of seasonal and calendar effects. Therefore, production increased by 0.3% in April compared to the previous quarter. In this period there was a strong increase in industrial production in the sectors with a high export quota. The sector turnover indices also showed that foreign demand continued to support industrial production. The indices of retail sales volumes, on the other hand, have increased on a quarterly basis since April, underlining that the recovery in domestic demand continues.
Investment trends by manufacturing firms for the next twelve months continue to be high. Looking at the orders recorded on the domestic and foreign markets and the future expectations on corporate orders, it is noted that foreign demand continued its favorable course in the second quarter of the year. Spending with cards, on the other hand, confirms the recovery trend of domestic demand in the April-May period.
The trend of the labor market shows a perspective consistent with economic activity. In April, seasonally adjusted total employment increased by 1.4 per cent (about 408 thousand people) compared to the previous month. With the labor force participation rate up 0.7 points, the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate remained almost flat compared to the previous month and stood at 11.3%. Survey indicators and high-frequency data indicate that the upward trend in employment is preserved.
Recently, the strong trend in energy imports continues to affect the current account balance. While the current account (CID) balance had a deficit of $ 2.7 billion in April 2022, the annualized current account deficit increased by $ 1.2 billion to reach $ 25.7 billion. Provisional foreign trade data indicated that exports remained strong in May, while imports remained high due to energy prices. On the other hand, thanks to the dynamic capacity and flexibility of market diversification of exporting companies, it is observed that the short-term regional losses due to the ongoing conflict are offset by the increase in exports to other countries and regional exports have increased. above the pre-conflict level.
Despite the increase in the foreign trade deficit due to rising commodity prices, especially energy, the continuing upward trend in service revenues continues to support the current account balance. While the share of sustainable components in the composition of growth is increasing, risks stemming from energy prices as well as tourism-related improvements in the current account remain. It is important for price stability that the current account balance becomes permanent at sustainable levels.
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