✔ Agricultural producer prices increased 16% in May, 100% in five months and 155% in the last year. Is it possible to say that the prices of agricultural products will fall again after these rates?
✔ Let producer prices rise so high, even if the product is free in the field, retail prices will gradually increase due to other costs, especially transportation.
It was the popular speech of a period … Let’s write the months as an example; “March will be better than February, April better than March and May better than April “. It was called. It was the other way around. If we say for months in the words of our elders “The entrant has sought the outgoing”.
Now when it comes to inflation “half mouth” even if it has been said “Summer will be fantastic” There is an expression like … This view of the summer months appears to be similar to that of the months. Furthermore, developments are giving very typical signs that the summer months are not going to be good at all.
Official data that lead us to think so …
TURKSTAT announced the May results of the Producer Price Index for Agricultural Products yesterday and we have seen that the summer months, let alone be better, will bring disaster …
– The producer price index for agricultural products increased by about 16 percent in May. No mistakes, one month increase!
– The increase in the first five months of the year was exactly 100 percent.
– In May, the increase over the past year reached 155 percent.
– The general annual rate is 155%, but the increase in herbal products for one year is 191%, the increase in perennial herbal products is 190%. Live animals and animal products, which had an 89% increase, reduced the overall rate.
– To understand how high the annual increase is, which was 155 percent in May of this year, it is enough to take into account the fact that the annual increase in May last year was only 20 percent.
IS SUMMER CHEAP?
The cost of the manufacturer will increase in this way, but somehow the meters will be cheaper!
Isn’t that what people always complain about? the price of each product is three lire, five lire in the field; but when that product arrives at the counter of the big cities, it is sold by multiplying it three or five times.
Even if the product is zero lire in the field, as the cost of transport is increased day by day, since an economic environment is created that will increase the need for the vehicle at each stage to keep its profit margin high, the economy of the the stalls will be nothing more than a dream.
Don’t look at the small fluctuations, the general trend will always be up.
Therefore, it should be expected that prices in the food group, which have risen by 92 percent in the last year, also according to TURKSTAT, will rise even more under the CPI.
TUIK, MAKE A DECISION!
TURKSTAT has stopped announcing the prices of goods and services under the CPI, as of the May data, and this decision has been heavily criticized. The fact that this decision coincided with May data, in which the rate of price hike was announced at a highly controversial level, sparked further criticism.
Isn’t it necessary to ask TUIK now?
You made such a decision for the CPI. Obviously right for you.
On the other hand, the prices of the products included in the producer price index for agricultural products continue to be announced; Yesterday you also announced the prices for the month of May.
This is the wonder; Are you going to give up on explaining the details on agricultural product prices, or would you have given up but you forgot it yesterday?
IS THE HOUSE FOR SALE OR BUY?
“What is the difference” I can hear you say … A transaction is in progress and obviously sells and buys at the same time.
We always refer to these purchases as sales, whether in the real estate, automotive or other areas. We emphasize that this situation, which we call sales, actually points to the vitality of the market.
Sales are high, so the market is alive, things are going well … But the situation in homes is different. Most of the homes sold are second hand. It is the first-hand sales, not the total number, that show the true vitality of the real estate market. Indeed, does the high sales of used cars show that this market is alive, or does it mean that there are problems in the economy in other areas?
What do the May data say?
Compared to last year, first-hand home sales increased 81% and second-hand sales increased 120% in May. There is an increase of 28 and 42 percent in the same order over the five months. 31 out of 100 homes sold in May last year were first-hand, the rate dropped to 27 this year.
The numbers clearly show that second-hand ones are more popular in the real estate market. A number of factors such as the high cost of first-hand homes and their location increase the demand for second-hand homes. But the real question is: The demand for used homes is on the rise, but what is the purpose of those who sell them? For what purpose were 412,000 used homes sold in five months? Let’s say some of those who make this sale add money or take out a loan and buy zero housing.
But I wonder how many of those making this sale are traders, small industrialists, whose business has gone badly; maybe retirees who have to sell their second home? Let’s say that the house is not an appliance that the factory produces, the income of the citizens is good, they buy it. Let’s do the same analogy for the automobile, let’s do it for the brown goods. If someone buys second-hand housing, it means that someone else is losing their home. Let’s try to read this real estate trade a bit like this …
THE “Apparent” QUARTERLY LOAD OF KKM IS 21.1 BILLION TL
quarterly for currency-protected deposits e “visible” The payment reached 21.1 billion lire.
With the May report of the Ministry of the Treasury and Finance, the balance of the first three months was released.
For those who open a protected deposit account in TL currency, because the interest given by the banks is lower than the increase in the exchange rate. “Difference between currency increase and interest rate” Consequently, 11.7 billion lire were paid in March, 4.6 billion lire in April and 4.8 billion lire in May.
For the 21.1 billion lire paid in these three months “visible” Why did we use the load definition?
Because we don’t know how much the Central Bank paid for the KKM account opened by converting from DTH, and we don’t know the exact amount of the tax advantage granted to companies because they open a KKM account by exchanging DTH. When these are added, the KKM load increases a lot.
TODAY’S LOWER LIMIT TO JUNE INFLATION: 2.69 PERCENTAGE
Nine articles of goods and services that you considered at this stage …
Gasoline and diesel cars, electricity, natural gas, gasoline, diesel, LPG, tea and airline prices …
The effects of these items on other goods and services are not taken into account. Today is June 16th and there is a little game. With the increase of 1 lira and 27 cents for diesel, the lower limit of inflation in June rose to 2.69 per cent. There are readers who ask; Ask: “Will the monthly rate be 3 percent or 4 percent?” …
I do not know! Again, I do not make monthly predictions, moreover such a forecast cannot be made even in the middle of the month. It is difficult to draw the final result taking into account the excursions into the main elements that I have made.