✔ Everyone now knows and can predict the trend of inflation in December. Now, it is claimed that inflation will be kept under control in February and March. In other words, will the decline accelerate further or will a horizontal trend emerge? It is not clear what is meant …
There are two tipping points ahead of us in terms of inflation. We will be back for one in December. The annual rate will begin to decline. This has been said for a long time and is a known fact. Finally, the Minister of Finance Nabati said once again.
The second round was announced by President Erdogan. Erdogan said inflation will be kept under control in February and March.
Indeed, this statement is also an admission that inflation is not under control now. Everyone sees this fact, though; already now taking the current situation “Inflation under control” I can’t even call him …
Nobody knows it will be in December
The annual CPI increase is 78.62 percent at the end of June and it is inevitable that this rate will increase further until December. The price increase in the sum of the months of July, August, September, October and November last year was 10.48 percent. Attention, five months increase!
Prices were “rolling” on a monthly basis last year, this year “running” growing!
Therefore, the total increase in the July-November period will exceed 10.48 percent, unless there is a miracle, and the annual increase, which was 78.62 percent at the end of June, will be much higher. at the end of November.
Finance Minister Nabati “I promised our President, inflation will go down in December” The reason behind this claim is the record rate of 13.58 percent in December last year. It is very likely that this level of increase will not be seen in December of this year and the annual rate will be below the level at the end of November.
But let’s stress again; this will only show that the rate of price increase has decreased in the last year, not that prices have decreased!
I wrote on July 5th. If the July-November increase remained at the same level as last year, the annual rate at the end of November would be 78.62 percent, and if there were a 5 percent increase in December, the rate at the end of November December would drop to 65 percent. In other words, we will end the year with 65% inflation.
Therefore, 2022 inflation will never drop below 60%. But there are no barriers at higher altitudes!
My estimate for the end of December is between 65 and 75 percent.
WHAT WILL HAPPEN IN FEBRUARY AND MARCH?
This is how we manage December. 13.58 percent is removed from the annual account, replaced by a lower rate and “Inflation is going down”let the drums play!
It is now February and March.
According to President Erdogan, inflation will be under control in February and March.
There is no concrete measure of what should be understood from the fact that inflation is under control. What is meant here is that the rate of increase is likely to be moderate …
Or, we don’t know if the annual rate will drop rapidly in these months.
The annual rate could also decrease in January
The January rate will be announced on Friday, February 3, 2023. A lower fulfillment is very likely than the 11.10 percent in January of this year. Therefore, the decline in the annual rate, which will start in December, will continue in January. The date this regression will be learned is February 3rd.
So what will happen in March? Look, it’s critical!
This year, the increase in February is 4.81%, that of March is 5.46% and that of April is 7.25%.
Sure, it’s easy to stay below 13.58 percent and 11.10 percent in December and January, but the same can’t be said for the next three months.
Especially when it is not possible to predict how we and the world will be in those months …
If we can’t stop the currency …
It is obvious that we have created a very large part of the inflation we are experiencing. This is due to the increase in the exchange rate.
The essence of KKM, which launched in December last year, and a number of decisions made after that, is to keep it dry. Hand; we can’t keep it, we’re fighting!
Therefore, this difficulty will increase in the coming months. Furthermore, if energy prices rise even more on the international stage, it means that a very difficult winter awaits us. It means that more foreign currency will be needed for the same amount of energy imports.
Then it would be impossible to keep it dry. It will not be possible to hold prices until the exchange rate increases.
Although there is so much uncertainty ahead of us that we cannot control, and we do not use or cannot use the tools that will be under our control, the forecasts on the trend of inflation in 2023 are nothing but a hope.