In its report last week, Glassnode said short-term investors as well as long-term investors were at a serious loss and has now rated the 2021/2022 bear season as the biggest and most difficult bear season in crypto money history. .
“Everything is normal for the conditions of the bear season”
It has been stated that the rates of decline experienced by ATH levels are of great importance for confirming bear season, and when we look at the data, everything looks normal under current bear season conditions:
“Two points can be indicated for the start of the bear season. The April 2021 peak of $ 64,000 and the November peak of $ 69,000… As we have stated several times previously, the peak of April 14, 2021 is the clearest indicator of the start of the bearish season, considering the May balances. Because in this period both the sellers and the big buyers have been canceled from the market. Looking at bearish seasons in history, we see that the duration was 260 days in 2019-20 and 415 days in 2015, and during those periods Bitcoin sees drops of 75% to 84% from its peak. Therefore, considering that the current price is 73.3% lower than the November ATH and the duration is between 227 and 435 days, we can say that this bear market is at a strictly normal level in terms of historical norms and severity. “.
“Mayer Multiple falls below the previous season for the first time”
In the report, which stated that bear seasons generally began when the price of Bitcoin fell below the 200-day moving average, the Mayer Multiple measurement was also of great importance and that there were firsts in this. sense:
“When prices fall below the 200-day moving average, it is generally considered a bear market. When he started trading on it, it was a bull market … Over the years, Bitcoin has shown movements that comply with this rule. Mayer Multiple (MM), price deviations have also provided important messages in terms of oversold and overbought. For example, the lowest MM value (0.487) fell below the previous bear season’s lowest value (0.511) in the 2021/2022 bear season. This was the first time in history. In fact, out of a total of 4160 trading days, only 84 have so far been below 0.5 million. “
“Loss transactions are 2.3 times higher than profit transactions”
In the report, which stated that the collapse of LUNA also severely affected the profit / loss ratio, it was stated that investors took the flag of surrender seriously:
“Finally, when we look at the ratio of profit to transferred volume and loss to transfer volume, we see that the figure reached 2.3 times with the collapse of LUNA. That is, the volume of losing trades is seen as 2.3 times that of profitable ones. When we look historically, we see that there aren’t many one-sided markets. The fact that there is such a high percentage of losses gives us the message that a significant number of investors have taken the flag of surrender. “