✔ The mystery of how TURKSTAT gets lower than average fuel prices in the inflation calculation has been solved: the price is included in the calculation by weighting it with the sales amount, which is absolutely correct.
✔ But the same method should be applied for other items, especially cars. We doubt that this method is followed in the automobile; because then inflation appears higher.
It is not that fuel prices are increasing day by day … The weight of fuel in the CPI is also quite high … This is why the price increases are causing the CPI to rise dramatically … All things considered, Turkstat is changed in the face of such a sensitive method of calculating fuel prices, people are amazed and, of course, want this sensitivity to be shown in every field.
I’ll explain how this measurement is done in a moment; essentially the right method. But the fact that those who are so sensitive on this issue, on the other hand, are able to hide the material basket in every corner creates a great contradiction. “Nobody should see what prices we use for the calculation”; this is the purpose. So far we have seen what was happening; Were your situation and reputation worse than in May? Is it better to hide the cart of items?
You probably haven’t suddenly made the decision to hide your item cart. If you had such an intention, at least if you had done so in April when you announced the 7.25 percent CPI increase, you would have attracted fewer reactions. You didn’t think about it too!
Explain a rate far below all estimates and conceal the material basket at the same time to completely destroy the credibility of this already amazing rate with your own hands! Both the error and the timing are completely wrong!
Fineness of calculation in fuel
Let’s see how precisely the calculation in fuel is done …
We know that there will be a price increase or a discount for petrol or diesel, valid from midnight, in the morning hours. If the excursion is large, the citizen wants to at least get rid of the next day’s excursion by refueling during the day. On the days when the hike was recently learned, we observe the lines that form at gas stations together.
Therefore, the amount of sales on the days when the increase is learned is greater than on the other days. At this stage, that sensitive measurement of the TUIK comes into play.
Today, for example, 28 lire per liter of petrol will increase, at midnight it will increase 2 lire and tomorrow the price will be 30 lire. Today citizens poured into the stations and, for example, 1,000 liters of gasoline were sold. The next day only 400 liters were sold for the price of 30 lire.
TurkStat, “It would not be correct to take the average of 28 and 30 and say 29; you have to weigh the price with the amount of sales “ approaches and of course the average price remains below 29.
You know, I wrote in this column that there is a difference between the fuel prices used in TUIK’s CPI calculation in May and EMRA’s prices, it turns out that was the reason.
But I didn’t learn this detail because TURKSTAT announced it. TURKSTAT did not even deign to make statements or provide information.
What a terrible situation indeed! What a communication error!
In my column I tell TÜİK “The price you use is lower than the mid-market price and EMRA’s price, so the CPI appears to have risen less.”; no sound!
They obviously don’t care about me and what I write; it does not matter.
In fact, all he doesn’t care about is Turkey! I am not writing to satisfy my personal curiosity.
I hope they realize the difference one day!
But the questions don’t end
TURKSTAT collects from the EMRA data pool how much fuel is sold in Turkey every day. EMRA announces average prices on a daily and monthly basis, but information on the amount is not publicly available.
By the way, let me state; I take average market prices as the basis for calculating the lower bound for inflation. I do not have the possibility to reach the amount of information available to TÜİK; but i know that the method i use doesn’t affect the total fare too much.
TurkStat learns how many sales are made each day, but how does it learn to weigh it?
Obviously, what is Istanbul’s share of total sales in Turkey, what is the price there, what is the quantity and the price in Hakkari; All of this is put together and the calculation is done.
However, even in the same city, the prices can be different.
Especially in LPG, fuel dealers can go far below the maximum price set by the distribution companies. This discount is known to be due to competition due to the high profit margin in the GPL.
The fact that there is not much difference in gasoline and diesel prices compared to distribution companies and service stations makes the calculation easier, but how is the price for LPG compiled? How many stations does TÜİK collect prices from?
But this question doesn’t matter! We won’t know the answer, however, whatever TurkStat says is true; it is true?
LET THE PRECISION JEWELRY SCALE WORK FOR THE CAR ALSO!
Weighting the price of fuel by the amount of sales is certainly a correct method. Undisputed!
But there are two fundamental questions:
What is the main purpose of doing this; Is it to create sound statistics or to lower the average price with this method? Because this method allows TURKSTAT to get a lower price on the inflation account.
But whatever the purpose, the method is correct. Therefore it is expected that the application of the quantity weighting will also be applied to other items.
Especially in cars … The item with the highest weight in the CPI is the petrol car with 5.47 percent. The diesel car also has a weight of 1.80 percent. In other words, the total weight of the car is 7.27%. Since TurkStat tracks the number of car sales from the Inland Revenue records, weighting by price can be done very easily in cars as well. Maybe the car is also ballasted, I don’t know. Let me give you an example of why weighting is so important for a car …
The price of any car in May, for example, is 490 thousand lire. We arrived in June, a total of ten of those cars were sold. One of these sales was made when the price was 500,000 lire, and nine of them were made when the price rose to 550,000.
If the weighting is not done based on the number of sales (I know it is not done in the current situation), the average price of this car in June is 525 thousand and the increase is 7,% compared to 490 thousand in May. . , if the weighting is done with the number of sales, see how the situation changes …
-A car is sold for 500 thousand lire, the total amount is 500 thousand lire.
-Nine cars are sold for 550 thousand lire, the total amount is 4 million 950 thousand lire.
-So the total of ten cars is 5 million and 450 thousand lire, so each car is sold for 545 thousand lire.
Consequently, the increase is 11 per cent compared to the price of 490 thousand lire in May.
Of course, it could also be the other way around; When the price of the car hasn’t increased that much, more sales can occur, and when it increases, fewer sales can occur.
If TUIK weighs with the amount of fuel, it should definitely do so for the car which has a very large weight in the CPI.
There is a small chance this could be done, I don’t know. It is also not possible to learn, because TÜİK was thus withdrawn into its shell …
The institution, whose sole job is to produce data, is doing whatever it takes to undermine trust in this data because …
TODAY’S LOWER LIMIT TO JUNE INFLATION: 2.64 PERCENTAGE
I wrote the lower bound for June inflation as 2.67 percent for June 13. I lower this level slightly and update it to 2.64 percent starting June 15th.
This update is the result of the 97-cent reduction in gasoline prices, effective as of today.
I need to point out a detail regarding the calculation of the lower bound for inflation.
The rate I worked out with this calculation is for the whole month, but not the total estimate. I have already stated that I will not make a total forecast covering the entire month. This calculation is a study that I perform taking into account the items whose price increase or decrease can be precisely determined. From time to time my readers “These and those objects have been raised so much” information is coming. Thanks for your interest, but I am doing a study taking into account the elements I have finalized. And the report I propose does not cover the general, I draw a lower limit.