TL lost another 1% against the dollar yesterday due to continuing concerns about inflation and economic policies. The loss in value of TL since the beginning of April is 13% and the loss since the beginning of the year is 22.5%. Concerns that the TL will lose more value in low interest policy are dominant in the markets.
The closest barrel price of Brent crude has recorded its largest daily loss since March yesterday. 9.5 percent decline lived. Brent is trading around $ 104 this morning after falling below $ 100 yesterday.
According to economists’ calculations, a $ 10 rise / fall of brent oil contributes to Turkey’s annual energy imports. Increase / decrease of $ 4.5-6 billion make an impact. Whether or not the drop in oil prices caused by the global recession will be permanent is being monitored to calculate the level at which Turkey’s $ 50 billion energy bill will occur over the next period.
The energy bill is followed as it is a determining factor on the exchange rate balance in the current policy.
CURRENT ESTIMATES OF DEFICIENCY INCREASE
High energy imports eliminated the government’s current account surplus target for this year. Economists raise current account deficit estimates to $ 40 billion. The government’s economic policy was based on the current surplus target. Despite these developments, economic policies based on negative real interest rates in TL continue. Markets, on the other hand, follow these policies with concern due to their increasing effects on the need for foreign exchange in the economy.
Inflation approached 80 percent in the low-interest system implemented to support policies focused on exports and the current account surplus. Yesterday’s ICI statement, on the other hand, shows that, despite the effects such as inflation and the depreciation of the TL, the problem of financing is also increasing in export-oriented investments in employment, which the government has set as its main objective. for the growing economy.
The president of the Istanbul Chamber of Industry (ICI), Erdal Bahçıvan, said that exporting industrialists have serious problems in accessing finance and are facing a “financial bottleneck”.
DOLLAR / TL EXCEEDED 17.20
Having seen a new high since December 20 with 17.5425 two weeks ago, the dollar / TL could not be permanent at these levels after falling to 16.03 with the BRSA decision in the past few weeks.
While it was announced that BRSA measures would be lengthened, the dollar / TL rose to as high as 17.0510 yesterday. The exchange rate is currently trading at levels of 17.2474. The dollar saw its highest level of 17.25 during the day.
Turkey’s 5-year CDS was around 848/863 yesterday.
On the other hand, the Treasury completed its July loan program with 3 loans made yesterday. The Treasury, which ran 4 auctions, one sukuk and 5 issues this week, surpassed its lending target of TL 25 billion for July and borrowed nearly TL 35 billion. With the changes made by the CBRT to the holding of bonds against foreign currency deposits and in collateral, there has been a great deal of interest in fixed coupon bonds.