In the statement released by the IMF, the main findings of the audit were shared as part of the fourth consultation article on the US economy.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) lowered its growth expectations for the US economy this year from 3.7% to 2.9% and its forecast for 2023 from 2.3% to 1.7% .
By claiming that the US economy has recovered decisively from the shock of the new type of coronavirus (Kovid-19), it has been argued that the benefits of an extremely flexible economy coupled with unprecedented political stimulus have had positive effects.
In the statement, it was stressed that the obstacles to the supply chain are more permanent than expected and it was noted that Russia’s attack on Ukraine and China’s quarantine measures against the Kovid-19 outbreak caused new concerns. .
“We expect it to narrowly escape the recession”
Stating that the widespread rise in inflation has become a reality that poses systemic risks to both the United States and the global economy, the statement says the target has been achieved for more than a decade. under It has been argued that rising energy prices and continued global supply cuts after ongoing inflation have led to a significant acceleration in inflation.
In the statement, it was stressed that it should be a political priority to rapidly slow wage and price growth without causing a recession.
“We expect the US economy to slow down in 2022-2023 but narrowly escape recession,” the IMF said in its statement. evaluation was included.
Stating that the US economy is expected to grow 2.9% this year, it was reported that the country’s economy is expected to grow 1.7% next year, 0.8% in 2024, 1. , 7% in 2025 and 2.1% in 2026.
In its World Economic Outlook Report published in April, the IMF projected that the US economy would grow 3.7% in 2022 and 2.3% in 2023.
The statement, which also includes inflation forecasts, states that inflation in the United States is expected to be 5.4 percent this year, 2 percent in 2023, 1.8 percent in 2024. 1.8 percent in 2025 and 1.9 percent in 2026..
“The rapid recovery had side effects”
IMF Director Kristalina Georgieva told the press conference on the U.S. Article 4 consultation that she had a series of meetings with US Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell and US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen.
Pointing to the positive effects of the unprecedented financial and monetary support provided in the United States during the Kovid-19 crisis, Georgieva pointed out that the positive results of the latter also supported the recovery of the global economy.
“But the rapid recovery has had unintended side effects. Most importantly, there has been a significant acceleration in wage and price inflation. These pressures are now far-reaching and go far beyond rising energy and energy prices. of food, “said Georgieva. she said.
“The Fed is on the right track”
Stating that fighting inflation is the US administration’s first priority, Georgieva said her meetings with Yellen and Powell left no room for doubt about their commitment to reducing inflation.
Recalling that the Fed responded to inflation by signaling its intention to follow a much stricter policy stance, Georgieva said: “The Fed’s policy rate course is that you quickly raise the federal funds rate from 3.5 to 4% is the right policy to reduce inflation. We believe. ” she said. Georgieva also noted that she supports the Fed’s decision to reduce her balance sheet.
“We are confident the Fed will be instrumental in keeping inflation low, sticking to the data and clarifying where policy will go as conditions change. This is important not just for the US, but for the world economy,” he said. affirmed the chairman of the Fed Georgieva said. He said.
“It would be useful to withdraw the tariffs that have been applied for five years”
Referring to concerns about the recession in the US economy, Georgieva said: “We are aware that the United States has limited space to avoid a recession. We must also accept the uncertainty of the current situation.” she said.
Georgieva explained that the economy continued to recover from the outbreak and that major shocks such as Russia’s attack on Ukraine and quarantine measures in China continued to shake the economy.
Noting that they think the US administration should continue to support changes in tax, spending and immigration policies that will help create jobs, increase supply and support the poor, Georgieva said among the administration’s policy goals there are important policies that will facilitate a rapid transition to a low-carbon economy and that these laws should be passed as soon as possible, they expressed their hopes.
Stating that during their meeting, US officials declared their commitment to an open, transparent and rules-based international trading system, Georgieva said, “In this context, we can see the clear benefits of canceling tariffs that have been implemented over the past 5 years, especially at a time when inflation is high and supply chains are tight. ” she said.