How the Turkish economy will meet the growing need for foreign exchange, especially energy, is being watched closely.
The fact that the CBRT maintains the policy rate at 14 percent despite inflation exceeding 70 percent, or the very high negative return of the TL, increases the demand for foreign currency.
The direction of the economy is taking steps to reduce the demand for foreign exchange and increase the demand for TL with regulatory changes. Finally, although the TL has gained value following the measures taken by the BRSA on Friday, experts predict that the depreciation will continue as the demand for foreign exchange continues.
May foreign trade data for May, weekly foreign currency deposits and central bank foreign exchange reserve data, which will be released at 143.0, will be watched today at 10:00.
Furthermore, at 2:00 pm the summaries of the meeting will be published, in which the CBRT has decided to keep the monetary policy rate constant for the sixth consecutive month and the Treasury’s internal debt program for the period July-September will be published. posted at 17:00.
In addition, President Tayyip Erdogan’s press conference will follow, which will take place after the NATO summit, which ends today. A US official released a statement yesterday, expressing the US administration’s view on Turkey’s request to purchase F-16 fighters from the US for the first time, and said the White House welcomed the offer. .
RELATIVE EXPECTATION OF RECOVERY IN THE FUND RESERVES
According to bankers’ calculations, CBRT’s net international reserves, which fell to $ 7.38 billion, a new 20-year low last week, are expected to recover by $ 0.5 billion. According to calculations, CBRT’s reserves excluding swaps were from last week. -53.8 billion it was dollars.
Although CBRT adds some of the exporter’s FX revenue and the FX portion of the KKM application to its reserves, the bank’s reserves do not increase at the same rate. The difference is that the currency is used for “stability” as defined by the government.
Last week 17.5425 The dollar / TL, which has seen a new high since December 20, was trading in the first week of June after falling to 16.03 on the first day of the week. 16.60 rose to levels.
Dollar / TL started the last trading day of the second quarter at 16.6200 / 16.7050. If TL closed at these levels, it would have depreciated 11.6% in the second quarter and 20.9% year to date.
CDs INCREASE AGAIN
Turkey’s five-year CDS (risk premium) record which surpassed 840 basis points (bps) in the middle of this month, following last week’s gradual decline, rose sharply by 30bps until yesterday’s second day and closed at 833/845 bps.
Looking to the global markets, Asian equity markets were poised to close on the last day of the second quarter, which was marked by fears that central bank anti-inflation measures would slow the global economy, and posted heavy losses.
If Asian equity markets close at these levels, it will end the second quarter with a 10% loss, while US equity markets fell from 16% to 21%.
THE DOLLAR IS VERY CLOSE TO THE SUMMIT OF 20 YEARS
The dollar, on the other hand, showed its strongest performance since late 2016, due to the Fed’s aggressive monetary tightening in the second quarter and investors’ desire to remain liquid in a volatile operating environment. The dollar index is near 105.79, the 20-year high it has seen in the recent past, with 105.100 today. The dollar gained 5.6 percent against the euro and 12 percent against the yen in the second quarter.