The continuing fear of inflation and the risk of recession in world economies make it difficult to price almost any asset. The intensification of the macroeconomic data calendar, which will have an important place in the decisions to be taken by central banks at their July meeting, erodes risk appetite, while measures taken against geopolitical risks force investors to be cautious.
While US durable goods orders rose 0.7 percent month-on-month in May, above market expectations, risk appetite weakened in equity markets on fears that the aforementioned data indicated that the inflationary trend in the country had remained strong.
Although a horizontal pattern is observed to dominate the bond markets, a 75 basis point rate hike is considered certain at the July meeting in money market prices, while expectations for a 50 basis point increase in interest rates at the meetings in September are getting stronger.
PRICES IN DOLLARS AND EUROS
A mixed pattern was observed in developing country currencies on the first trading day of the week, and after the BRSA announced new terms for TL commercial loans, the Turkish lira became the best performing currency with a 2.2 percent rise against the dollar yesterday. However, the dollar / TL, which fell as low as 16.09 during the day and tested the lowest level of the last month, ended the day down from around 16.55. Turkey’s 5-year CDS premium fell to 771.78 basis points, while the 10-year bond yield was 19.31%.
The Dollar / TL rate is trading above 16.62 this morning. On the global side, the dollar index is observed to move at the level of 103.95, while the yield on US 10-year bonds is at the level of 3.1790 percent. Euro / TL, on the other hand, is trading at 17.60 TL in the same minutes.
ON AND GRAMS OF GOLD
Yesterday, up to the $ 1841 level, an ounce of gold completed the day at $ 1822. The price of one ounce of gold is trading today at $ 1828. The gram of gold, which broke the all-time record rising to 1062 lire before the Currency Protected Deposit System was put into use on December 20, had seen less than 500 lire after that date. However, with the dollar / TL rate having seen 17.50 TL in recent weeks, the price per gram of gold has once again set its sights on the all-time high and climbed to the 1040 TL level. Gram gold prices subsequently declined and moved into the 1010-1025 lira range. However, the sharp drop in the dollar exchange rate following the BRSA decision on Friday resulted in losses under the grams and was withdrawn at 971 lire. After closing the day at 982 lire, the gold gram, which fell yesterday to 953 lire, is on sale this morning for 976 lire.
“THE FIRST THE GOLD RESULTS, THEN THE ECONOMY IS RECOVERED”
As gold price developments continued to be the focus of investor attention, a flash valuation of gold came from the world-famous name. Chen Lin, founder of Lin Asset Management, said: “When will we get out of the recession? I think someday the Fed will finally blink. They will say, ‘We can no longer tighten things like this.’ This is when gold will rise very sharply. That’s when we’ll start getting out of the recession, “he said.
While gold did not perform well during the recession, it could be a leading indicator that the recession is over. Chen Lin, the owner of this thought, comments:
“In every recession, every downside of the stock market, gold is always the first to come out. Even for investors who are not interested in gold, looking at the gold price can provide clues as to where the market will be in the coming weeks or months. First the gold goes up, then the economy improves “.