Dollar / TL has moved, how do analysts interpret it?


As USD / TL continues to rise, it was tested above the 17.20 level which was shown as resistance by analysts. The rate rose to 17.25 levels.

In addition to the rise in the dollar index, inflationary pressures and questions about economic policies make it difficult for the Turkish lira to recover. After seeing a new high since December 20 with 17.54 two weeks ago, the dollar / TL fell to 16.03 on June 24 following the BRSA decision. However, the exchange rate could not be permanent at these levels. The dollar rate, which has risen above 17 again, is today 17.25 levels tested.

According to the analysis of Integral Investment, suitable technical conditions have been created for the upward movement to accelerate in movements above the level of 16.80 in USD / TL. In case of a break of 17.20 resistance, it is followed as resistance in June. 17.40 the level could be the new resistance zone. In bearish trend 16.80 and 16.50 displayed as support levels. However, it is stated that reaction buying from these levels can also be seen in possible retracements. Euro / TL It is trading at 17.60 levels.

Dollar index up

The dollar index reached 106.9, surpassing the 105.8 level it had seen in the week of the Fed’s June meeting. This level was last seen in the index in September 2002. Technically, it is stated that 105 for the dollar index becomes support and 107.5 becomes resistance if it is held above 106.8.

The lowest level in the pair since December 2002

The euro / dollar parity continued to decline on Wednesday amid fears that rising energy prices in the European Union could trigger a recession, and hit a new 20-year low of 1.021. Moritz Paysen, a forex and interest consultant at German investment bank Berenberg, said the factor putting pressure on the euro was not just the possibility of cutting out Russian gas and said: “The already very high energy costs are by removing the euro. Energy costs are many times higher in Europe than in the United States “.

Analysts said the stronger expression of recession expectations has suppressed risk appetite and increased the trend towards the dollar, which is seen as a safe haven, and they think the volatile currency markets may continue for a while. .

Watch the Fed minutes

The minutes of the US Federal Reserve (Fed) meeting held June 14-15 are expected to be announced at 9:30 pm CEST. Clues will be sought on the step bank officials will take in July amid high inflation and recession concerns. While new information is unlikely to emerge from the minutes, committee members will have a chance to see their current views on monetary policy as interest rate hikes heighten recession fears. The details are thought to bolster the expectation of a 75 basis point rate hike.

On the other hand, the ADP private sector employment change in the US to be announced tomorrow and the US non-farm employment data to be released on Friday are also important items on the agenda in terms of rate trends. exchange rate.

Drop in oil earnings for Turkey

In addition to all these developments, declines in commodity prices, US bond yields and oil present a positive picture for Turkey. According to economists’ calculations, a $ 10 change in Brent oil equals Turkey’s annual energy imports. 4.5-6 billion dollars It has an increase / decrease effect. Whether or not the drop in oil prices caused by the global recession will be permanent is being monitored to calculate the level at which Turkey’s $ 50 billion energy bill will occur over the next period.

US crude oil, which fell below $ 100 yesterday, rose above $ 100 again today. The closest futures barrel price of Brent crude oil fell 9.5% yesterday, after seeing its lowest level in 2.5 months, rising nearly 2% today. 105 dollars tiered.


Leave a Comment