Come December, come December, let this increase stop …


✔ We look forward to December for the decrease in annual inflation. December will come, annual inflation will obviously decrease. Since there won’t be a 13.58% monthly increase in this range, like last year …

✔ While June sees an average 15-20 percent increase in automobiles, the rate of increase is 3.77 percent for gasoline and 1.77 percent for diesel, according to TUIK. The fact that the real rate of increase was not reflected caused the CPI to appear lower by 0.85 points. If the automobile increase were fully reflected, the June increase would have been 5.80%.

Consumer prices rose 4.95 percent in June. This means that the real increase was greater. I will explain why I think so. Let’s take a look at the big picture first …

The half-year increase was 42.35 percent from 4.95 percent in June, the annual rate also increased slightly and reached 78.62 percent.

The direction of the annual CPI increase has been increasing for thirteen months. The annual increase, which was 16.59 percent in May of last year, began to rise in June and this trend has continued for thirteen months.

How long will the annual rate increase; Now we know until December.

There was a song called “Come on”; Esmeray, who passed away at a young age, said:

“Come on, let this wish come to an end …”

Now it is very likely that someone is muttering inwardly:

“Come December, come December, let this increase end …”

Nureddin Nebati, the Minister of Treasury and Finance, who expressed this expectation openly beyond grumbling. What Nebati said in recent days:

“I promised our President that inflation will go down after December …”

That’s right, inflation will drop year after year in December.

Everyone already knows, Minister, come to us with new good news!

So she hadn’t fallen before!

Let’s read the sentence in reverse order that the rate of price increase will decrease after the interval:

“The rate of price increase will not decrease until December!”

This means that monthly inflation should not be below 1.80% in July, 1.12% in August, 1.25% in September, 2.39% in October and 3.51. % in November.

In the current trend, the 1 percent and 2 percent monthly rates are already a dream, but this is clearly stated.

By the way, remember, it was said that there would be a low price in the summer months. See, that too has been forgotten.

No, it’s not even cheap in the summer; not in the fall.

Until December arrives, inflation is falling … Now that’s what they say!

Everyone lowers inflation in December!

Finance Minister Nabati’s predictions may not have come true so far, but the promise for December will certainly keep pace.

The annual price increase in December will be lower than the November rate.

Because when you calculate the annual rate in December this year, the record increase of 13.58 percent in December last year will be out of the question. Even though the range increase is 13.57% this year, the annual rate will decrease.

It’s like two times two four!

Because this is a very simple mathematical operation.

Finance Minister Nabati “Inflation will fall after December” even the explanation is a bit obvious.

If nothing is done in December, which is hardly done anyway, inflation will fall again on an annual basis.

Or, whoever is in charge of economic administration in December, the annual rate will go down again.

Because, according to the current trend, the increase in December will be much, much less than 13.58 percent.

But you see, there are big problems coming from abroad, very unusual developments occur, or we raise prices again by taking other steps, like lowering the interest rate ourselves; then the situation changes. However, in the normal course, the December rate will remain below 13.58 percent and the annual rate will decline.

But it is worth emphasizing once again that a decrease in the annual rate will not mean that prices have fallen.

How many can there be?

Let’s make a hypothesis …

If the monthly price increase were at the same level as last year, starting in July … In this case, the annual increase in CPI at the end of November would be 78.62 percent.

Also two assumptions for the interval:

– If the December increase is 5 percent, the annual rate, which was 78.62 percent at the end of November, will drop to 65 percent at the end of December.

– Let’s say that a miracle happened and the prices did not change in December; the rate is zero! In this case, 78.62 percent at the end of November will drop to just 57 percent at the end of December.

So the base rate for 2022 will be around 60%.


For the June 4.95 percent increase at the entrance to my article “appropriate” I said, let me unpack some.

There are some items that fall within the scope of the CPI whose price is very easy to reach. These products are not sold in the market, however in the market; The price is almost the same throughout Turkey. These are articles with a very high weight in the CPI. I’m talking about the car …

Anyone can find in the index the price of diesel and gasoline cars with a weight of 7.2 percent. Look, there’s a 15-20 percent increase in June compared to May, according to brands and models, and even more for some models.

In the CPI, the best-selling cars are taken into account, which is what needs to be done. It is also obvious which cars are sold the most in Turkey.

This weighting shows that car prices increased by at least 15 percent in June.

Although this information is open to all, the rate of increase considered by TUIK for cars is 3.77% for petrol and 1.77% for diesel.

The real increase is at least 15 percent, and according to TUIK, the increase is 3.77 percent and 1.77 percent!

According to the 15 percent increase, the reflection from the automobile to the CPI is 1.09 points. But if you take the rate of rise as TUIK, the reflection is 0.24 points. The difference is 0.85 points.

In other words, June inflation, announced at 4.95%, would have been 5.80%. The six-month increase would have reached 43.50 percent, not 42.35 percent.

That’s why for 4.95 percent “Favorable rate” I say…

The car is an example … Think of dozens of other objects!


Leave a Comment