Central Bank Inflation Statement: The most obvious contribution is from energy


After the Turkish Statistical Institute (TUIK) announced that CPI rose 4.95% in June and annual inflation rose to 78.62%, the Central Bank’s Price Development Report was released. of the Republic of Turkey (CBRT).

According to the report, annual consumer price inflation declined slightly in the major goods group in June, while it increased in other subgroups. The most significant contributor to the rise in inflation came from the energy group. During this period, the rise in producer prices continued due to increases in international and domestic energy prices and continuous interruptions in the supply chain.

In this perspective, the seasonally adjusted trends of indicators B and C have decreased. On the other hand, the rise in annual inflation of the indicators continued and the B index increased by 2.79 points to 64.42 per cent in June compared to the same period of the previous year and the C index increased by 1.22 points at 57.26.

With these developments, the contribution to annual consumption inflation increased by 3.65 points in energy, 0.88 points in services, 0.29 points in food, 0.21 points in the alcohol-tobacco-gold group, and 0 , 09 points in basic goods in June compared with the previous month.


Service prices rose 3.98% in June, while the group’s annual inflation reached 48.69%. Over this period, annual inflation increased across all subgroups.

Hotel restaurant prices increased 5.42% due to both food and accommodation services, and annual inflation in this group rose to 79.55%. While prices in transportation services increased by 4.57%, air transport rose to prominence with road and rail transport and intercity passenger transport. Thus, the annual inflation in the transport group became 81.83%.

While the prices of communications services increased by 3.16%, the rates for telephone and Internet calls were effective in this perspective. Prices in the other group of services increased by 3.14%. The impact of insurance, maintenance-repair services and package tours has been felt to a large extent in this development. In the rental group, the monthly increase was 3.11 percent in June, while seasonally adjusted monthly changes accelerated.


While commodity prices rose 2.80% in June, the group’s annual inflation fell 0.46 percentage points to 64.86%. Over this period, annual inflation increased in the durable goods group, while it decreased in the other subgroups.

Durable goods prices, excluding gold, increased by 3.65% in June, while furniture prices with 6.53% and car prices with 3.29% were the determining factors in this development. . Therefore, the group’s annual inflation reached 77.90%.

While price increases of other basic commodities have spread across the group, personal care products, housing maintenance and repair materials, home textiles and home cleaning materials are came to the fore and the monthly inflation of the group was 3.11%. Prices in the clothing and footwear group remained stable and annual inflation fell 2.92 points to 26.35%.


Energy inflation increased significantly in June, driven by fuel, natural gas and electricity rumors, in line with the outlook for international energy prices in Turkish lira.

While energy prices rose 16.16% in June, the group’s annual inflation rose 30.12 points to 151.33%. Price increases spread across the group and high price increases were observed in both fuel and administered / direct items.

Following the trend in international crude oil prices in TL, fuel prices increased by 21.88%. Annual inflation in this sub-group reached 251.98%. Following the regulation of residential tariffs, natural gas prices increased by 25.11 percent and electricity prices by 15.01 percent.

During this period, while bottled gas prices rose 6.25 percent, tap water prices rose 3.39 percent.


Food and soft drink prices rose 2.09% in June, and the group’s annual inflation rose 2.30 percentage points to 93.93%. Annual inflation fell by 5.96 points to 91.65% in unprocessed foods, while it increased by 10.03 points to 96.04% in processed foods.

While seasonally adjusted data in the group of unprocessed food products indicate that the decline in the prices of fresh fruit and vegetables due to vegetable prices continued, the increase in the prices of milk, rice, potatoes and dried fruit, which was affected by the regulation of raw milk reference prices, has drawn attention to the other unprocessed food.

Cheese and other dairy products, breads and grains, soft drinks, tea and sugar-derived products were featured in the 7.53% increase in the prices of processed foods.

While the prices of alcoholic beverages and tobacco products rose 2.61 percent in June, annual inflation rose to 70.99 percent. Reflections on the increase in tax rates were also observed on the prices of alcoholic beverages. During this period, the contribution of the alcohol-tobacco group to monthly consumer inflation was 0.12 points.




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