CDS exceed 800 basis points


After the new steps announced by the direction of the economy, the fluctuating trend in exchange rates can be observed.

Last week, the domestic market had an active day on the last trading day of the week, with the effect of new steps in the economy. The dollar fell to 16.85 levels on the day it started above 17.2. However, the exchange rate struggled to move downwards. Tera Investment chief economist Enver Erkan, in his assessment at WORLD, said: “Although expectations that inflation-protected bonds could come after the first Treasury statements last night led to the retreat of the exchange rate in First, it was noted that prices, especially the exchange rate, have returned to their old levels after the decisions: “We think you’ll want to understand the details,” he said.

Renewing the peak level recorded since 2008, the 5-year risk premium (CDS) reached 816 basis points.


During the last global financial crisis, CDS reached these levels in October 2008 and Turkey’s risk premium in intraday trading reached 904 basis points in October 2008.

The rise in CDS to these levels is expected to affect the interest Turkey will pay on foreign loans, while the interest rate for Treasury dollar-denominated loans is projected to exceed 10%.

Turkey’s CDS was at the 1300 level in the last economic crisis of 2001, which was deeply affected.

An increase in the premium premium (CDS) means an increased risk of bankruptcy.


After the depreciation of TL, which began in late April and approached 13 per cent, interest on foreign currency deposits and on TL and on loans increased across the banking sector, while banking sources indicate that rising interest rates interest could continue with the new steps taken yesterday by the administration of the economy.

According to information provided by the bankers, while dollar deposit interest rates increased 2 points in 2 months to around 5 percent, TL deposit rates increased by 3-5 points and reached levels of 20 -23%. On the corporate side, with the exception of some selective areas determined by the government, in some banks the cost of revolving loans has risen to 40 per cent. All lending has risen 3-5 points in the past few weeks.

A senior banker told Reuters. “As bond / bill rates are falling, there is an increase in interest on deposits and loans across the industry. Here, both the latest TL amortization and the cost increase phase, excluding the selected areas on the side loans, they have an impact, “he said. A banking source said: “Due to the accelerated depreciation of the dollar / TL in recent weeks, dollar demand is again in an upward trend. Interest on bank dollar deposits has approached 5%. This is. rate was around 3% in March. Not just dollar deposit rates. “TRY loans and deposit interest rates are also on the rise. Increases of 3-5 points are observed in all loans. In some banks, revolving commercial lending rates have approached 40%. Deposit rates have risen from 17-18 percent in the public sector to 20-23 percent. “ She said.


The stock market, which started the day with a high on Friday 10 June, rose to 2597 points with an increase in value that approached 1% during the day. However, profit selling was observed in the following hours. In the banking index there was a premium of around 4% during the day. Towards the end of the day, some of the increase was reversed. Analysts said the perception that the effects of BRSA regulations will be relatively limited, as well as the fact that there has been no announcement regarding the change of direction of deposits in the banking sector and the issuance of inflation-linked bonds or super-bonds, which could cause the loan / deposit spread to tighten, were effective in rallying bank stocks. Enver Erkan, pointing out the exchange opportunity dedicated to foreigners, “The details on the freedom to swap are not yet clear. Positive steps in this direction could be reflected on the stock market as cash inflows.” She said.



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