Many Bitcoin enthusiasts have heard of the Pi Cycle Top indicator, which “magically” predicts peaks from several previous bull markets. However, few people know otherwise, Pi Cycle Bottom. So what levels does this metric indicate as the minimum in BTC? Here are the expectations …
Historic event of Pi Cycle Top
The historical effectiveness of this signal has shown various spikes in the larger cryptocurrency. For example, Pi Cycle Top Signal started on April 12, 2021. Just two days later, Bitcoin hit an all-time high (ATH) of $ 64,900. This high accuracy of the Pi Cycle Top was no exception. Because the indicator was also very effective in previous cycles. All 3 ATHs from previous bull markets coincided with the flashing signal no more than 5 days before or after the peak.
The only ATH that the Pi Cycle Top is far from surpassing is the last one. On November 10, 2021, the indicator failed to produce a signal when BTC hit $ 69,000. At the time, this was interpreted as a sign that the second wave of the bull market was not over yet.
Bitcoin bottom and bearish cycle with Pi Cycle
Pi Cycle Bottom is the opposite of Pi Cycle Top. The bearish version, according to analysts, is the ratio of the 471 SMA to the 150 EMA. It appears that the Pi Cycle Bottom indicator can be successfully used to predict the absolute low area of the previous two bear markets (blue lines). The 150 EMA first fell below the 471 SMA on January 16, 2015. This happened just two days after the BTC price hit a low of $ 152. Pi Cycle Bottom produced the same signal for the second time on December 16, 2018. This comes just one day after the all-time low of the previous bear market at $ 3122. According to analyst Jakub Dziadkowiec, we are currently approaching the third signal in history and another downtrend of the two moving averages (circle blue).
When will the Bitcoin bottom hit?
According to the analyst, if the relationship between the intersection of the two moving averages and the low of BTC is repeated in this cycle; Bitcoin faces the possibility of seeing the bottom of this bear market soon. Currently, the EMA 150 has initiated the strong bearish characteristic of the latest capitulation phase. There is a possibility of a transition in the next few days. Cryptocurrency market analyst “TheRealPlanC” tweeted his prediction on the breakout date and the date of reaching a hypothetical low for Bitcoin. Based on the movement trajectory of the two curves, he predicted that the intersection would take place on July 9, 2022.
If that happens, in exactly 15 days Pi Cycle Bottom; it will generate a signal that very accurately describes the low of the BTC price on the previous two occasions. Another analyst combined the potential signal from the Pi Cycle Bottom with the fractal analysis of previous cycles. According to the analyst called “el_crypto_prof”, if there is a minimum potential of Bitcoin in the near future; it fits well with the similarities between previous cycles.
In the graph above, we can see that for the entire period from April 2021, the analyst includes the post-ATH correction phase highlighted in red. Also includes the latest ATH of $ 69,000, reached on November 19 According to analyst, despite a technically higher BTC price being achieved; many technical and onchain indicators show that this is already a bear market. Dziadkowiec concludes his analysis with the following statements:
Perhaps this was why the Pi Cycle Top was not producing an adequate signal. If this is true and the correction in the BTC market has been going on for more than a year, then we can really expect the long-term upside to end soon.
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