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Bad news for the citizens! Inflation and the dollar will shock everyone

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The Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (CBRT) has released the market participant survey for June. The research showed that year-end consumer inflation expectations were 57.92% in the previous survey period, compared to 64.59% in the current survey. While market participants’ current year-end consumer inflation (CPI) expectations were 57.92% in the latest survey period, they expect it to be 64.59% in the current survey period.

Latest Central Bank Polls Announced!

In the last survey period, the 12-month CPI was to be 33.28% and this period was 37.91%. In the same survey period, CPI expectations 24 months later were 0.54% and 22.04%, respectively. The participant’s current year-end exchange rate (USD / TL) was supposed to be 17.57 TL in the last survey period and 18.89 TL and 70 TL in this survey period. The Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (CBRT) has released the market participant survey for June. The research showed that year-end consumer inflation expectations were 57.92% in the previous survey period, compared to 64.59% in the current survey.

While market participants’ current year-end consumer inflation (CPI) expectations were 57.92% in the latest survey period, they expect it to be 64.59% in the current survey period. In the last survey period, the 12-month CPI was to be 33.28% and this period was 37.91%. In the same survey period, CPI expectations 24 months later were 0.54% and 22.04%, respectively.

The participant’s current year-end exchange rate (USD / TL) was supposed to be 17.57 TL in the last survey period and 18.89 TL and 70 TL in this survey period. On the last trading day of the week, the internal data agenda was pretty busy. Aside from housing sales, private sector external debt and the producer price index for agricultural products, the most important development was the survey of market participants.

The Central Bank has made its predictions!

According to the results of the January survey of the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey, the USD / TL forecast for the end of 2022 was increased to 16.13 and that for the next 12 months was increased to 15.56. The current year-end consumer inflation (CPI) forecast has been revised to 29.75%. The forecast for the next 12 months has been revised from 21.39% to 25.37% and the forecast for the next 24 months has been revised from .41 to .54.

The exchange rate started the week of January 10 at around 13.83. The dollar rose to 13.94 on the same day before fluctuating between 13.72 and 13.88 on Wednesday. It dropped sharply in the middle of the week at 1.15pm. It rebounded at the same pace after Thursday’s slide and rose above 13.67. The exchange, which was relatively calm yesterday, closed at 13.58.

After falling to 13.64 in Asia, it fell to 13.48 with the opening of the domestic market. After that, it showed limited recovery and started trading at 13.53 TL. The Turkish lira became the third most valuable emerging market currency against the US dollar as of 23.29. The dollar fell 2% last week and fell 8.64% in one month. On December 20, it reached an all-time high of 18.40. Analysts said there is a significant level in the short-term range of 12.83-13.58. If it holds above 13.58, it should rise to 13.71 – 13.95. Below 12.83 a pullback is expected to 12.65 – 12.38 – 12.17 respectively.

Central Bank Statement!

The Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (CBRT) announced the results of the March market participants survey. 50 respondents from the physical, financial and professional sectors responded to the March 2022 market participants questionnaire and the results were assessed by aggregating their responses.

As a result, participants’ current year-end consumer inflation (CPI) expectations changed from 34.06% in the previous survey period to 40.47% in this survey period. In the last survey period, the 12-month CPI was to be 24.83% and 26.43% during this survey period. Over the same survey period, CPI expectations 24 months later were .42 and .03, respectively.

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